Two WB Exit Polls Predict Tough TMC-BJP Fight, Others See TMC Win

·4-min read

After the conclusion of the eighth and final phase of polling for the Assembly Elections on Thursday, 29 April, the fate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) was predicted by several exit polls with all expecting massive gains for the BJP in the state.

The TMC, as per the CVoter Exit Poll, is projected to secure a narrow win with 158 seats, with a loss of around 53 seats as compared to the 2016 elections. Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win around 115 seats, a massive jump from the 3 seats it won in 2016.

The Republic-CNX poll predicted a range for both the parties, while predicting a victory for the BJP in the state. While the TMC is predicted to win 128-138 seats, the BJP is expected to cross the halfway mark of 146 with 138-148 seats.

  • Voting for the eight-phase election in the state concluded on 29 April

  • The results for the elections will be declared on 2 May

  • Several polls in the past have predicted a neck-and-neck battle between the BJP and the TMC, with Mamata Banerjee returning to power with a marginal majority

Today's Chanakya Projects Win for TMC

  • TMC: 180 seats

  • BJP: 108 seats

  • INC+Left: 4

  • Other: 0

India Today-My Axis Exit Poll Projects a 'Tight Fight'

  • BJP: 134-160

  • TMC: 130-156

  • Left + Congress: 0-2

  • Other: 0-1

Further, TMC is projected to garner 44% vote-share, BJP projected to garner 43%, and left 10%.

India Today-My Axis Poll: Projected Seat Share for Malda (47/49)

  • TMC leads, securing 31 seats

  • BJP secures 16 seats.

News X-Polstrat Projects 152-162 Seats for TMC, 115-125 for BJP

  • TMC+ - 152-162

  • BJP+ - 115-125

  • LEFT+ - 16-26

  • Other - 0

India Today-My Axis Poll: Projected Seat Share for Burdhwan (54 seats)

  • BJP leads, securing 36 seats.

  • TMC secures 18 seats, left and others secure 0.

India Today-My Axis Poll: Projected Seat Share for Mednipur (56 Seats)

  • BJP leads, securing 34 seats

  • TMC secures 21 seats. Left+INC secure 0, and others 1.

India Today-My Axis Poll: Projected Seat Share for Jagalpuri (27 Seats)

  • BJP leads, securing 27 seats

  • TMC, Left+INC and others secure 0

India Today-My Axis Poll: Projected Seat Share for Presidency Region (108 Seats)

  • TMC leads, securing 73 seats.

  • BJP secures 34 seats, INC+Left secure 1

CVoter: Region-Wise Seat Share Projections

  • Deltaic Region: TMC to get 14 Seats, BJP 12

  • Greater Kolkata Region: TMC to get 38 seats, BJP 17

  • Highlands: TMC to get 26 seats, BJP 24

  • North Border Region: TMC to get 30 seats, BJP 21

  • Northern Hills: BJP to get 15 seats, TMC 12

  • Southern Plains: TMC to get 38 seats, BJP 16

Meanwhile, INC + Left are projected to get one seat in Greater Kolkata Region, three in Highlands, 12 in North Border Region, one in Northern Hills and two in Southern Plains.

Republic-CNX Predicts Neck & Neck Competition

Republic-CNX has projected a neck and neck competition, with the BJP securing 138-148 seats and TMC 128-138.

  • BJP: 138-148

  • TMC: 128-138

  • Left+: 11-21

Republic TV has, however, also announced that the exit poll figures are only as per 1 pm on Thursday, 29 April, and can be expected to change.

CVoter: Phase-Wise Seat Projection

  • Phase 1: BJP leads, winning 15 seats

  • Phase 2: TMC leads, winning 16 seats

  • Phase 3: TMC leads, winning 19 seats

  • Phase 4: TMC and BJP tie, winning 21 seats each

  • Phase 5: TMC leads, winning 25 seats

  • Phase 6: TMC leads, winning 27 seats

  • Phase 7: TMC leads, winning 21 seats

  • Phase 8: TMC leads, winning 15 seats

CVoter: Projected Seat-Share

While the TMC is expected to win 152-164 seats, the BJP might win 109 to 121 seats, making it a clear battle between the two parties.

CVoter: Slight Dent in TMC's Vote Share; BJP to Gain Significantly

There will be a slight dent of percentage points in the TMC’s vote share, which is expected to fall from 44.9% in 2016 to 42.1% in 2021. The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to raise its vote share from 10.2% in 2016 to 39.2% in 2021.

CVoter: Narrow Win Projected for TMC

The TMC, as per the CVoter Exit Poll, is projected to secure a narrow win with 158 seats, with a loss of around 53 seats as compared to the 2016 elections.

Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win around 115 seats, a massive jump from the 3 seats it won in 2016. The Congress-Left alliance is expected to lose massively, falling from 76 seats in 2016 to 19 seats in 2021.

Exit Poll Predictions Shortly

Several surveys including CVoter, India Today-My Axis India, and others will release predictions soon after the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) is officially lifted.

Polling in the Final Phase Concludes

Polling in the eighth and final phase of West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on Thursday, 29 April.

. Read more on West Bengal by The Quint.Two WB Exit Polls Predict Tough TMC-BJP Fight, Others See TMC WinRussell’s 45 and Shubman’s 43 Help KKR Post 154/6 vs Delhi . Read more on West Bengal by The Quint.

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