Washington, October 17: The advantage for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden continues in swing states ahead of the November 3 electoral clash with Donald Trump. In six out of the eight major swing states - as determined by the major pre-poll ratings agencies - Biden has maintained a lead among the "decided voters". US Elections 2020 Betting Odds: 74% Chance of Joe Biden Defeating Donald Trump, Oddsmakers Suggest.
One state in particular where the incumbent President has been focussing is Florida. Known for its fluctuating electoral mood, Trump is hopeful of a resurging red wave by end of the month, which would boost his prospects to take the fight to the electoral college against Biden.
What The Poll Trackers Suggest in Swing Stages?
Biden currently maintains a lead in six battleground provinces. They are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, holds a slim edge in the states of Iowa and Ohio.
In Pennsylvania, the Guardian poll tracker which is compiling data from nearly a dozen pre-poll surveyors, has found Biden leading by a whopping 6.2 percent. In terms of electoral college, it translates to 20 votes for the winner.
In Ohio, Trump is leading by 1.8 percent over Biden. The state has a weightage of 18 electoral college votes. Notably, the President was trailing from the province in first week of October, after he contracted COVID-19.
Michigan, which carries a weightage of 16 electoral college votes, is expected to turn blue as Biden enjoys a massive lead of 7.9 percent. In North Carolina and Arizona, which are represented by 15 and 11 electoral college delegates respectively, the former VP is leading by around 3.5 percent, as per the poll tracker.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral college votes, is also expected to be bagged by Democrats as Biden enjoys a lead of 7.5 percent in the aggregate of pre-poll surveys. In Iowa, which has a weightage of 6 electoral college votes, Trump is leading by 1.2 percent, as per the poll tracker.
Florida - What The Polls Suggest and Why It Matters The Most?
The aggregate of around 12 major pre-poll surveys, which includes Fox Research, CBS News, YouGov, Redfield and Wilton, suggest a resurging wave for Trump. While Biden is still leading by 2.3 percent, the margin of difference has been reducing over the past week.
Trump's graph is sharply rising, whereas, the support for Biden has remained stagnant or marginally dropped in the past few days. The poll tracker currently shows the President being backed by 46.7 percent of decided voters, Biden enjoys the support of 49 percent.
Florida is the most crucial as the state is represented by 29 electoral college delegates. In the 2016 elections, all the delegates voted for Trump after he secured a narrow lane victory over Clinton in Florida. Also to note, Trump was trailing behind Clinton in the poll trackers ahead of the elections - though the margin was not as wide as now - but ended up winning six swing states.
One of the reasons why the pre-poll agencies had erred in 2016, claim experts, was the over-reliance on inputs from decided voters. Will the "undecided voters", who are yet to open up their cards before surveyors, will make the difference in Biden vs Trump battle? The answer will be out in the first week of November.