What if Tamil Nadu Assembly election is held today? 10 India Today-Karvy survey highlights to know
If the crucial Tamil Nadu Assembly election, due in 2021, is held today, the ruling AIADMK will get just 68 seats with a vote share of 26 per cent, according to the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll conducted across 77 assembly constituencies in the southern state.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SURVEY
- The India Today-Karvy survey says there will be a substantial loss to the ruling AIADMK party that won 135 seats in 2016 Assembly elections with a vote share of over 40 per cent.
- The opposition DMK+ alliance - that includes the DMK, the Congress, and the IUML - will get 130 seats with a vote share of 34 per cent. Megastar Rajinikanth's party will win 33 seats with a vote share of 16 per cent. The survey says there will be negligible impact of another superstar Kamal Haasan, who has also taken the political plunge.
- A clear majority of 65 per cent respondents felt that Tamil Nadu is facing a political vacuum after the demise of J Jayalalitha and this has adversely impacted the quality of governance in the state. Four of every five respondents believed the quality of governance in the state has deteriorated in the last one year or so. More than half feel that the AIADMK will disintegrate in the absence of Jayalalithaa.
- The India Today-Karvy opinion poll suggests the AIADMK is facing a serious issue of retaining its voter base. One of every three AIADMK voter (2016 elections) has decided not to vote for the same party this time. Around 60 per cent of these dissatisfied voters are turning towards Rajinikanth’s party while other 26 per cent are moving towards the DMK.
- The DMK is also witnessing some shift in its voter base towards Rajinikanth's party, though its voter base is relatively intact when compared to the AIADMK. One of every five DMK voter (2016 elections) has decided not to vote for the party and 63 per cent of these voters are shifting towards Rajinikanth's party.
- Rajinikanth's party is making a notable beginning in Tamil Nadu politics with 16 per cent vote share and that too, when the formal party name or symbol has not been announced yet. The superstar-turned-politician has also not started any campaign, and therefore his party would be an important political force in the next Assembly election.
- However, the majority also feels that Rajinikanth's roots as an outsider will work against him in Tamil Nadu politics, something that he would have to counter. Also, over half the respondents still feel that he may not be able to fill the political vacuum in the state and that what explains the possible growth in the DMK voter base.
- Within the AIADMK, there is no clear picture emerging in terms of who can be the true inheritor of J Jayalalitha’s legacy. While O Panneerselvam has an edge over EK Palaniswami, there is no consensus amongst the respondents. More than 30 per cent actually feel that no one from the existing AIADMK leadership, including O Panneerselvam, EK Palaniswami, TTV Dhinakaran, Deepa Jayakumar, and Sasikala Natarajan can be the true inheritor of Jayalalitha’s legacy. This highlights the leadership crisis within the party.
- A clear majority of 64% of respondents rate the performance of EK Palaniswami as poor or very poor. There is an overall dissatisfaction with the key economic and social parameters including job creation, state of schools, colleges, hospitals, industries, and condition of farmers.
- DMK veteran M Karunanidhi has been voted as the best Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu so far by 29 per cent respondents, while MGR and J Jayalalitha follow with 25 per cent and 21 per cent votes respectively.