With each new report about what the San Francisco 49ers will do with the No. 3 overall pick, there have been odds changes at BetMGM and 49ers fans trying to convince everyone that the reports aren't accurate.
On Sunday, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said the 49ers are down to two prospects for that No. 3 pick: Alabama quarterback Mac Jones and North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. Assuming that report is true, that would mean Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, presumed to be as high as No. 2 when the offseason began, would likely be out of the top three.
The draft is this week and the most compelling story might be the 49ers' plans. The most compelling part of betting on the draft has been how the odds for that third pick have fluctuated wildly the past couple weeks.
Of course, there was another big odds move with the latest report.
Trey Lance the second favorite to go third overall
Jones, who many 49ers fans have argued will absolutely not be the pick at No. 3, is the favorite to go with the third overall pick at -200. That's as short as Jones' odds have been since Fields briefly overtook him after his second pro day workout a little less than two weeks ago.
In the second spot is Lance, at +175. He had been consistently the third favorite to go No. 3 overall, with odds hovering about +325 late last week at BetMGM. Fields is now far back at +550.
There's an interesting dilemma for Jones and Lance. If the 49ers do pick one of those two quarterbacks, where will the other one go?
Just because the 49ers believe Jones or Lance are worth the third pick doesn't mean other teams feel the same. Draft boards vary on all players. If Lance doesn't go No. 3, it doesn't mean he's a lock for No. 4. The same goes for Jones, who was not mentioned as a potential top-five pick before the 49ers moved up. The Atlanta Falcons, or a team trading up, could prefer Fields. The Falcons could pick a non-quarterback, making it even hazier for the QB who doesn't go third.
There's intrigue at No. 3, of course. There also will be a lot of curiosity over what happens to Jones or Lance after No. 3.
Which team will land Lance?
BetMGM has the over/under of Lance's draft position listed as 6.5, with heavy -225 odds to the under. Over 6.5 is +175.
The team-by-team odds on who will draft Lance could draw more action:
Yahoo Sports' NFL draft expert Eric Edholm has been sharing his thoughts on BetMGM's draft props, and here's his breakdown of Lance's odds:
Edholm: "There's a lot of steam on Lance going third to the Niners, so the under of 6.5 suddenly looks very enticing. But what if they pass on Lance for Jones? Is he guaranteed to go in the next three selections? It would appear that Detroit at 7 is the next trade-back possibility, although Miami at 6 could possibly listen to offers. It's a heck of a tough call here. Immediately after the trade was consummated, I thought Lance was the target for San Francisco. Since then, we've been put through the blender. Bet this one at your own peril."
Lance has been an intriguing prospect for a couple years, since he put up a 28-0 TD-to-INT ratio. He played just one game in 2020, as North Dakota State moved to a spring schedule amid COVID-19 changes. He has obvious skills but detractors wonder how his great production on the FCS level will translate to the NFL. The lost 2020 season only adds to the mystery.
Lance could end up at No. 3. Kyle Shanahan could do a lot with a dual-threat talent like Lance. If Lance goes past that, it's anyone's guess. The Broncos could move up. The Falcons could take a quarterback, but could also prefer Fields over Lance. The Patriots, Washington Football Team and Bears could all get aggressive, especially if Lance slips past Fields.
There hasn't been a class like this before, with five good quarterback prospects who could all go in the top 10. It seems bettors will be guessing on who lands where until Thursday night.
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