Karnataka will go to the polls in two phases, on April 18 and 23. The state, often referred to as BJP’s gateway to the South, sends 28 MPs to the Lok Sabha and is extremely crucial for BJP to come back to power at the Centre.
Caste plays a major role in this state. The state has three major castes – Lingayats, Vokkaligas and Kurubas.
On the eighth edition of the ‘RajNiti Elections 2019’ debate series, BTVI’s Executive Editor discusses the state of affairs in Karnataka, Cong- JD(S) Vs BJP fight, the Siddaramaiah impact, whether the Modi Magic will work, and if rebels will play spoil sport for Congress.
And, the Big Questions BTVI asks –
1. What are the different regions of Karnataka & how have they voted in the past?
2. What has been the performance of different political parties in the past?
3. How can the Congress & JD(S) alliance impact the results?
4. Can the JD(S) transfer its vote to the Congress?
5. How will different voting patterns in different regions of Karnataka affect BJP's chances?
6. Will the Congress-JD(S) alliance manage to impact the election by keeping the BJP out of the state which is crucial to the NDA's calculations for coming back to power in upcoming Lok Sabha elections?
7. What is the possible impact in Karnataka?
Party-wise seat share and vote share breakup of previous election results.
During the 2009 LS elections, BJP was in power in Karnataka, while during 2014. If the results of 2018 Assembly results are compared with 2014 LS results, BJP was leading in 13 seats with vote share of 38%.
Performance of parties in different regions in the previous elections:
BJP is weak in Mysuru-Karnataka region, very strong in Coastal-Karnataka, Bengaluru-Karnataka and Coastal-Karnataka regions, and advantage Congress in Hyderabad-Karnataka region, says Partha Das.
Psephologist Partha Das on the Central-Karnataka region, says BJP is very strong in and it performed very well in the previous elections.
The Congress and the JD(S) are fighting with others in the state. JD(S) is fighting from 8 seats whereas Congress is fielding its candidates from 20 seats.
The different regions of Karnataka and how have they voted in the past?
Sanjay Kumar, Political Analyst, says if all the previous election results are taken into consideration, BJP made inroads and stayed there consistently.
He says, “BJP has a stable support base in some regions and the reason for it not expanding beyond 19 seats is in southern part of the region JD(S) is strong.”
What is the likely impact of the Congress + JD (S) alliance? Can the JD (S) transfer its vote to the Congress?
Not agreeing that there is Modi wave in Karnataka, Bhawesh Jha, Director, CNX, says ”There is no Modi wave. If you see the history, the result is always different from what is at the Centre. Caste plays a big role.”
Lok Sabha Seats where JD (S) has good organizational footprint
On asked whether PM Modi’s magic will work, Kingshuk Nag says it is all about Vokkaligas ang Lingayats with Vokkaligas with Congeess and JD(S) and Lingayats with BJP.
Vote swing between 2008 Assembly & 2009 Lok Sabha elections:
Vote Swing between 2013 Assembly & 2014 Lok Sabha elections
Anand Mishra, Political Editor, Deccan Herald, says in the areas where BJP is strong, the JD(S) is not helping Congress much.
He says,”Congress and JD(S) do not complement each other in terms of vote transfer. So, in majority of seats, Congress is fighting BJP alone.”
Will rebels impact the fortunes of the Congress?
Here is the list of rebel Congress MLAs in Karnataka:
Aditi Phadnis, Political Editor, Business Standard, on speculations that PM Modi may also contest from south Bengaluru seats, says though the seat is BJP dominated one she does not think the PM will contest from two seats this time.
What is the possible outcome In Karnataka?
Seat Projection For 2019 Lok Sabha polls: