From Modi-wave to Rahul's survival: Key takeaways from Exit Poll results

The Exit Poll for the Assembly Elections are out today giving an indication on the possible results in the five states - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa. According to the India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll, Congress is expected to dominate in Punjab, while BJP is set to emerge victorious in Uttarakhand.

The Exit Poll for the Assembly Elections are out today giving an indication on the possible results in the five states - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa. According to the India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll, Congress is expected to dominate in Punjab, while BJP is set to emerge victorious in Uttarakhand. The survey predicts Congress to win in Punjab with 62 to 71 seats out of 117 seats. In Uttarakhand, the BJP is seen winning 46-53 seats and holding 43 percent of the vote share.

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll predicted in Uttar Pradesh, BJP would win 50 out of 70 seats in areas where votes were casted during Phase 1. In areas where polling happened during Phase 2, BJP is expected to win around 21 seats.

Here are the big highlights of all the exit polls that announced today

'Modinomics' to be vote winner
This was the first time Assembly elections were held after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's shocking decision to demonetise old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes last year on November 8. Many political analysts were seeing these elections as a referendum on Prime Minister Modi and economic policies undertaken by him.

If this was the referendum on Modi's demonetization move, it's clear that the Prime Minister has cleared the note ban test. At least for now. And not only this, the party has also emerged as single largest party.

Here is India Today's Exit Poll forecast

Uttar Pradesh - 403 seats
India Today | SP+Congress (120), BJP (185), BSP (90), Others (9)

Goa - 40 seats
India Today | Congress (10), BJP (15), AAP (7), Others (8)
Uttarakhand - 71 seats
India Today | Congress (12-21), BJP (46-53), BSP (1-2), Others (1-4)

One could see that how all the polls predicted that the BJP is ahead in 4 states out of five that are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, according to various Exit Poll results. However, the saffron party will fall short of majority with somewhere close or less than 200 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Game over for Akhilesh Yadav?
As the exit polls results were out today, it was seen that how it could land Akhilesh Yadav's career in trouble. Just a day before polls' result, in an interview with BBC, Uttar Pradesh's Chief Minister in a desperate statement said that his party would not mind a tie-up with arch rival Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party.

"Samajwadi Party is open to joining hands with arch-rival Mayawati if no party gets a majority", he said.

The India Today-Axis poll showed that the Samajwadi Party might have been performed better without the alliance with Congress. As per the poll, Samajwadi party's performance would have done better riding on Akhilesh Yadav's positive image.

The same poll predicted that the Congress will win only 10-15 seats out of the 114 seats which it fought, while the SP has been projected to bag between 78-97 seats.

Moreover, The party's defeat would surely loosen up Akhilesh's hold over the Samajwadi party.

Congress back to square one
The defeat in Uttar Pradesh might make it difficult to fulfil the Congress party's dream to make Rahul Gandhi its vice president. Congress, however, has seen making a come back in Punjab with Aam Aadmi Party becoming the second largest party in the state. According to India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll, Congress party is expected to win more than 60 seats.

However, the projections draw somewhat worrying picture for the party in other four states. And if the results will come out as predicted the Congress party needs to introspect within the core.

Cast factor
Upper castes have always been favourable towards the Bhartiya Janata Party. However, the BJP changed its strategy in these polls. The party placed its bet on the alliance of between non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits.

India Today-Axis poll suggested that the BJP would bag 57 per cent of the Kurmi vote, 63 per cent of the Lodh vote and 60 per cent of the remaining non-Yadav OBC vote. Many of these communities voted for the SP in the 2012 elections in large numbers.

The poll showed the trend which might upset Mayawati. As per the India Today-Axis projections BSP would be able to grab 77 per cent of the Jatav vote. However, the BSP's hold over the non-Jatavs is slipping fast. Axis suggests that BSP will bag only 43 per cent of the non-Jatav vote share whereas the BJP is projected to bag a significant 32 per cent of the non-Jatav vote share.