Modi-led NDA to win Lok Sabha polls 2019 and form government, predicts survey; worry for Rahul Gandhi

Debjit Sinha
NARENDRA MODI RAHUL GANDHI

Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to form the government after Lok Sabha Elections 2019! In a major boost for the ruling Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government, a new opinion poll suggests that NDA will cross the magic figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats and form the government at the Centre on its own. According to the Times Now-VMR Survey, NDA is expected to get 283 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha polls 2019. The tally is less than the 336 seats that NDA bagged in 2014, but still above the mark required to form the government. However, a major takeaway for the BJP-led NDA is the thin margin close to the majority mark that is being projected by the survey.

Worry for Congress, Rahul Gandhi: The survey also predicts that Rahul Gandhi’s Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will garner 135 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections. Following the drubbing in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Congress changed its leadership by formally anointing Rahul Gandhi at the top position in the party. The grand old party did manage to stun BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh assembly polls late in 2018. It has also brought in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and entrusted her with the responsibility of the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh. However, the opinion polls showed, this would fail to yield optimum results for Congress as UPA will only get 135 seats which will not be enough to challenge Modi and BJP.

Financial Express Online takes a close look at what the survey predicts for key political states which are likely to be deciding factors:

Uttar Pradesh: The big state of Uttar Pradesh with a mammoth 80 seats always plays a decisive role in Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, it was all about Modi-wave as BJP and its allies got an all-time high of 73 seats. This time BJP and its alliance will be restricted to 42 seats, the survey predicts. The much talked about SP-BSP tie-up would ensure the two regional parties get as many as 36 seats. UPA will win 2 seats, the survey said.

Maharashtra: Another big state with 48 seats on offer. BJP and its ally Shiv Sena are projected to win 39, three less than both the parties won in 2014. Congress and NCP alliance will bag 9 seats, as per opinion poll.

West Bengal: BJP has been trying to make inroads in the state after gaining success in neighbouring Assam and Tripura. For PM Modi, big gains would mean a moral win over feisty challenger- Mamata Banerjee. In West Bengal, BJP will win 11 out of 42 seats, Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will bag 31 seats, the survey predicted.

Bihar: BJP is banking on this politically-charged state to retain power at the centre. It has got a strong political figure of Nitish Kumar as its ally. BJP-JD(U) will bag 27 seats whereas Congress and RJD together would get 13 seats.

The poll has shown that BJP will be able to turn things back in its favour in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where they lost power late last year. The survey predicted that BJP will 22 seats in Madhya Pradesh out of 29, 20 in Rajasthan out of 25, 6 in Chhattisgarh out of 11.

BJP will win 7 seats in Delhi, 24 in PM Modi’s home state Gujarat. In Tamil Nadu, BJP and its alliance AIADMK will only win 5 seats and DMK-Congress will win 34 seats. In Karnataka, BJP is set to win 15 and Congress-JDS 13. In Kerala, Congress and Left fronts will win 19 and BJP is predicted to win first-ever seat. In Andhra, YSR Congress will get 22 seats and TDP to manage 3. In Telangana, TRS will win 13 out of 17 seats, as per survey. In Odisha, NDA is predicted to win 14 out of 21 and BJD to return with 7.