India Week Ahead: RBI Credit Policy, ECF Panel Meet, FM-PSBs Meet To Guide Markets

Shiv Gupta

Indian market changed course to end in the green on Friday, this post reports emerged that government may consider taking back its decision to impose surcharge on FPIs and also relax 35% free float norm. Nifty gained 17 points but settled below the 11,000 Level, closed 150 points off day's low. Sensex gained 100 points to close above 37,100 mark.

For the week Sensex slipped 1.9%, Nifty down 2.4% and Nifty Bank closed with
losses of 3.8%. TCS 4.6%, Bharti Airtel 2.4%, Asian Paints 1%, HCL Tech 0.7%
were among Nifty gainers whereas Indiabulls Housing Finance -20.6%, Zee Ent -15%, Vedanta -13%, Tata Motors -11%, Grasim -11%, SBI -10.3%, JSW Steel -9.2%, Hindalco -8.8%, Tata Steel -8%, YES Bank -8% were among Nifty losers.

Nifty Resistance is seen at 11130, 11250 whereas Support at 10930, 11000.
For Bank Nifty resistance is seen at 28500, 28900 and Support at 28130, 27800

Let's take a look at some events which will guide the markets.

RBI monetary policy meet
RBI credit policy will meet Monday-Wednesday, rate decision at 11:45 am on Wednesday. There is broad consensus of a 25 bps cut in repo rates. With the economy slowing down and muted credit offtake, a rate will boost demand for credit. Core sector data released last week stood at 0.2% which a 50-month low. RBI has already cut rates thrice, 25 bps each in February, April and June.

The last leg of Q1 earnings continues this week, earnings till now has been muted due to low demand and tight liquidity. Berger Paints, CL Educate, Dilip Buildcon, ENIL, GMR Infra, Indian Bank, IHCL, SRF Ltd, Torrent Power will report earnings on Monday. Aditya Birla Fashion, Arvind Ltd, Central Bank Of India, Fortis Health, Indiabulls Hsg Finance, IRB Infra, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Thomas Cook India, Titan on Tuesday. Adani Gas, Adani Green, Adani Ports, Adani Power, Allcargo Logistics, Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla, HCL Tech, HPCL, India Cements, KEC International, Lupin, M&M, Tata Steel, Tata Tele, Voltas Ltd on Wednesday. Abbott India, Adani Ent, Adani Transmission, Aksh Optifibre, Akzo Nobel, Coffee Day Ent, Mahanagar Gas, Page Industries, Tata Chemicals, Uco Bank, Ultratech Cement on Thursday. 63 Moons, BPCL, Cadila Health, NCC Ltd, Pfizer Ltd, Spicejet Ltd, SAIL, Sun TV, TV Today Network on Friday.

ECF panel meet
Economic capital framework panel will meet on Monday to finalised the quantum of reserves to be transferred from RBI reserves to Centre. While govt in its budget said it is factoring in a dividend payout of Rs 90,000 Cr from RBI for FY20. DFS Secretary Rajiv Kumar who was promoted to post of Finance Secretary last week will take part in the meeting.

FM-PSBs meet
Finance Minister will meet Chiefs of public sector banks, this will be the first meeting with, this meeting was slotted last week but was postponed to this week as Finance Minister was busy with budget discussion in parliament, Finance Minister will review progress of cases under insolvency resolution, also expected to take stock of credit growth, MSME credit, NPAs in the banking system. Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Kumar, MCA Secy Injeti Srinivas and Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey will also be present in the meeting.

Crude & Rupee movement
Movement of crude prices and Rupee will be watched out for, crude slipped more than 5% last week post U.S. imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports. Rupee depreciated past the 69.50/$ mark on Friday.