In its first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday, 15 April, has predicted that the monsoons will be “near-normal” this year.
The monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the long period average (LPA), a senior official of the IMD said.
El Nino conditions are expected to weaken as the monsoon progresses, according to IMD.
Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall pic.twitter.com/7ivVIfv4lg— India Met. Dept. (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2019
LPA is the average rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Anything between 90-95 percent of LPA falls in the ‘below normal’ category.
Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, in its earlier forecast had predicted below-normal monsoon rains from June through September. Skymet had attributed the developing El Nino phenomenon for its forecast of below-normal monsoon.
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