UP Exit Polls: India Today-Axis Predicts Sweeping Win for BJP

(Photo: The Quint)
  • India Today-Axis predicts sweeping victory for BJP; seat share 251-279
  • News24-Today’s Chanakya also predicts a BJP win; seat share 267-303
  • The NewsX-MRC and VMR exit polls put BJP in the lead in UP with 185 seats and 190-210 seats respectively
  • According to ABP-CSDS, BJP, SP-Congress alliance are neck and neck
  • Both ABP-CSDS, India TV-CVoter predict BJP as largest party, but falling short of forming majority
  • The UP polls are being contested for 403 seats
  • The election results will be announced on 11 March

Stay tuned for all the live updates!

The grueling two-month-long process of the Uttar Pradesh elections has now drawn to a close. The exit poll projections for the state seem to predict a come back for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

While ABP-CSDS and India TV-CVoter predict BJP will emerge as the largest party but fall short of forming a majority, two other agencies give the ‘lotus’ a sweeping victory.

The scramble in Uttar Pradesh is for 403 seats, and the counting of votes will take place on 11 March.

Here are the key exit poll projections:

The India Today-Axis exit poll put BJP in a clear lead with a seat share of 251-279. The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance comes a close second with a seat share of 88-112, the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to get 28-42 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

Phase 1: 73 Seats

  • BJP: 50
  • SP-Cong: 7
  • BSP: 7
  • Other: 2

Phase 2: 67 Seats

  • BJP: 21
  • SP-Cong: 30
  • BSP: 3
  • Other: 0

Phase 3: 69 Seats

  • BJP: 39
  • SP-Cong: 15
  • BSP: 8
  • Other: 0

Phase 4: 53 Seats

  • BJP: 37
  • SP-Cong: 5
  • BSP: 0
  • Other: 4

Phase 5: 52 Seats

  • BJP: 26
  • SP-Cong: 12
  • BSP: 1
  • Other: 0

Phase 6: 49 Seats

  • BJP: 34
  • SP-Cong: 8
  • BSP: 5
  • Other: 0

Phase 7: 40 Seats

  • BJP: 34
  • SP-Cong: 1
  • BSP: 2
  • Other: 1

News24-Today’s Chanakya also predicts a sweeping victory for BJP with a seat share of 267-303. The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance follows with a seat share of 73-103 and Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to get 15-39 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

ABP-CSDS predicts that BJP will emerge as the largest party but will fall short of forming a majority, leading to a hung assembly. The magic mark to form a majority government is 202 in a house of 403 seats.

Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance comes up really close with 156-169 seats and Bahujan Samaj Party trails behind with a seat share of 60-72.

(Photo: The Quint)

Phase 1: 73 Seats

  • BJP: 33-39
  • SP-Cong: 20-26
  • BSP: 12-16
  • Other: 0-2

Phase 2: 67 Seats

  • BJP: 15-21
  • SP-Cong: 37- 43
  • BSP: 7-11
  • Others: 0-2

Phase 3: 69 Seats

  • BJP: 27-33
  • SP-Cong: 25-31
  • BSP: 9-13
  • Other: 0-2

Phase 4: 53 Seats

  • BJP: 27-33
  • SP-Cong: 16-22
  • BSP: 2-6
  • Other: 0-2

Phase 5: 52 Seats

  • BJP: 14-20
  • SP-Cong: 21-27
  • BSP: 8-12
  • Other: 0-2

Phase 6: 49 Seats

  • BJP: 18-24
  • SP: 14-20
  • BSP: 8-12
  • Other: 0-2

Phase 7: 40 Seats

  • BJP: 15-21
  • SP-Cong: 9-15
  • BSP: 6-8
  • Other: 0-2

Speaking to BBC Hindi, incumbent Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav commented on the possibility of a post poll alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party.

I have always accorded respect to Bahaman Samaj Party’s leader [Mayawati], so it is natural for people to assume we may form an alliance if required. But it’s hard to say now. I believe the youth, women and farmers have voted for our [SP-Congress] alliance. Of course, nobody would want President’s rule in the state [if there’s a hung assembly] or that BJP runs UP with a remote control.

India TV-CVoter also predicts a hung assembly in the state with BJP bagging 155-167 seats. The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance follows closely with a predicted seat share of 135-167.

Bahujan Samaj Party closes in third with a seat share of 81-93.

(Photo: The Quint)

The VMR exit poll puts BJP in the lead with a seat share of 190-210. The alliance bags the second place with a seat share of 110-130 and BSP trails fairly behind with 57-74 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

NewsX-MRC, one of the first numbers to be announced, puts BJP in the lead with 185 seats, Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance a close second with 120 seats and Bahujan Samaj Party with 90 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

The average turnout in the seven phases of polling, that began on 11 February, has been around 60-61 percent, compared to 59.48 percent in 2012.

The poll percentage in the first phase was 64.22, 65.16 in the second, 61.16 in third phase, 60.37 in fourth phase, 57.37 in fifth phase, and 57.03 in sixth phase.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi went to polls in the final phase. All eyes were on Varanasi, as PM Modi and his entourage of Cabinet ministers and BJP MPs were seen camped out in the ancient city, campaigning for BJP.

The PM is the BJP’s weapon of choice. But a week before Varanasi went to polls, Modi seemed to have relocated his government from Delhi to Varanasi. The all-important battle for Varanasi must be won.

The roll-call of BJP leaders was led by party president Amit Shah who has been camping in Amethi Kothi, and his protégé, Sunil Bansal, who has managed the party’s UP election.

Then there was Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Textiles Minister Smriti Irani, BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya – you name it, and they were there. And besides all these, at least one hundred MPs from all over the country.

The party seems afraid that this citadel of Hindutva could crumble in the face of Varanasi’s famously unpredictable people.

Read the full report here.

Also Read: Uma Bharti: ‘Chhota Dimag’ Rahul Will Run to Bangkok on 11 March

In 2012, the Samajwadi Party won 224 seats, making Akhilesh Yadav the Chief Minister. The incumbent Chief Minister, who had contested against the Congress five years ago, has now joined hands with Congress Vice President, Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP won 47 seats in 2012 Assembly elections. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections though, the BJP won 71 parliament seats by winning 328 (81 percent) of 403 assembly segments.

(Photo: The Quint)

When his father died some 15 years ago, Vikram Chaudhary was forced to quit his studies and carry forward his family legacy. For many generations now, Chaudhary’s family has burned corpses at the ghats of Varanasi.

Traditionally, this community, under India’s Scheduled Castes, has been treated as pariahs, but Chaudhary says things are not the same anymore.

In a conversation with Barkha Dutt at Varanasi’s Harish Chandra Ghat, Chaudhary tells her why he and his community want the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to come to power.

Read the full story here.