Exit Polls UP 2017: Survey predicts massive majority for BJP with 251-279 seats

Shubham Ghosh
uttar pradesh assembly election 2017, up election phase 6, up election phase 7, bjp vs sp alliance, pm modi, akhilesh yadav, muslim voters

Uttar Pradesh, the country's most crucial political state, went to polls in seven phases between February 11 and March 8, along with Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. The exit poll results of the state's Assembly elections were out on Thursday (March 9), two days ahead of the Uttar Pradesh election result. Most surveys predicted the BJP emerging as the single-largest party, but falling short of the magic figure of 202 in the 403-seat Assembly.

Also read: What March 11 will mean for BJP & Congress

Shortly after the exit poll results came out, outgoing UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav told BBC Hindi that his the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance was open to join hands with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party to keep the BJP at bay.

Also read: What exit polls said about election outcomes in Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand & Manipur

While India Today-Axis My India predicted a massive majority for the BJP with a tally of 251-279, Times Now-VMR survey predicted the saffron party to sweep the elections by bagging between 190-210 seats.

Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls 2017 (Magic figure 202)
  BJP+ SP-Congress BSP Others
Times Now-VMR 190-210 110-130 57-74  0-8
ABP-CSDS 164-176 156-169 60-72  2-6
NewsX-MRC 185 120 90  0-8
India TV-CVoter 155-167 135-147 81-93  8-20
NDTV (poll of polls) 193 120 78  0-12
India Today-Axis My India 251-279 88-112 28-42 6-16
CNN-News18-Gramener 193 133 67  --
Narendra Modi

NDTV's poll of polls says BJP might get 190-plus seats but that is still not enough to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party coming back to power in the state after decades. The poll of exit polls said BJP may win 193 seats while the SP-Congress alliance may win 120 seats. The BSP might get 78 seats while 12 seats may go to others. 

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The CNN-News18-Gramener's projection for UP also predicted a hung Assembly with the BJP finishing first with 193 seats, followed by the SP-Congress alliance (133 seats) and the BSP a distant third with just 67 seats.

India Today-Axis My India forecasts BJP to get 251-279 seats

India Today-Axis My India predicts a massive majority for the BJP (251-279 seats), followed by the SP-Congress alliance (88-112 seats). The BJP may get 28-42 seats while others 8-16.

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Here is a phase-wise prediction by India Today-Axis My India:

  • Phase 1 (73 seats): BJP+ may win 50 seats; SP-Cong alliance 7 seats; BSP 7 seats; others 2 (7 tough fights)
  • Phase 2 (67): SP-Cong may win 30 seats; BJP may win 21 seats; BSP 3 seats; others 0 (13 tough fights)
  • Phase 3 (69): BJP+ may win 39 seats; SP-Congress alliance 15; BSP 8; others 0 (7 tough fights)
  • Phase 4 (53): BJP+ may win 37 seats; SP-Congress alliance 5; BSP 0; others 4 (7 close fights)
  • Phase 5 (52): BJP+ may win 26 seats; SP-Congress alliance 12; BSP 1; others 0 (13 close fights)
  • Phase 6 (49): BJP+ may win 34 seats; SP-Congress alliance 8; BSP 5; others 0 (2 close fights)
  • Phase 7 (40): BJP+ may win 34 seats; SP-Congress alliance 1; BSP 2; others 2 (1 close fight)

India TV-CVoter predicts BJP to get between 155-167 seats

The India TV-CVoter poll survey predicted the BJP to win between 155-167 seats in UP, followed by the SP-Congress alliance with a tally between 135-147 seats. The BSP may get 81-93 seats while others could get between 8-20 seats.

BJP to be the single-largest party but short of majority, predicts ABP News-CSDS exit poll

The ABP News-CSDS survey made a phase-wise study and predicted the BJP to end up as the single-largest party between 164-176 seats. The SP-Congress alliance may get 156-169 seats while the BSP may end up with just 60-72 seats.

  • Phase 1 (73 seats): BJP may win 33-39 seats; SP-Cong 20-26 seats; BSP 12-16 seats
  • Phase 2 (67): SP-Congress may win 37-43 seats; BJP 15-21 seats; BSP 7-11 seats
  • Phase 3 (69): BJP may win 27-33 seats; SP-Congress 25-31 seats; BSP 9-13 seats
  • Phase 4 (53): BJP may win 27-33 seats; SP-Congress 16-22 seats; BSP 2-6 seats
  • Phase 5 (52): SP-Congress may win 21-27 seats; BJP 14-20 seats; BSP 8-12 seats
  • Phase 6 (49): BJP may win 18-24 seats; SP-Congress 14-20 seats; BSP 8-12
  • Phase 7 (40): BJP may win 15-21 seats; SP-Congress 9-15; BSP 6-8

BJP might be largest party but short of majority, says NewsX-MRC survey

The NewsX-MRC survey has predicted the BJP to get around 185 seats, which is 17 short of the majority mark. The SP-Congress alliance will get 120 seats, this survey has said. Mayawati's BSP could get 90 seats, just 10 more than its 2012 tally. Follow the exit polls UP 2017 updates.

Times Now-VMR predicts BJP winning a clear majority

The Times Now-VMR exit poll has predicted a mega victory for the BJP with the saffron party winning between 190-210 seats in UP, which is more than the required figure of 202. The Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance is predicted to win between 110-130 seats. The BSP is set to win between 57-74 seats while others could win eight.

Here are the phase-wise facts of this year's election in UP:

  • Phase I: Seats: 73; candidates: 839; women: 77; Total voters: 26.01 million; turnout 64%
  • Phase II: Seats: 67; candidates: 721; women candidates: 82; voters: 22.8 mn; turnout 65%
  • Phase III: Seats: 69; candidates: 826; women candidates: 105; voters: 24.16 mn; turnout 62%
  • Phase IV: Seats: 53; candidates: 680; women candidates: 61; voters: 18.48 mn; turnout 61%
  • Phase V: Seats: 52; candidates: 607; women candidates: 40; voters: 181.7 mn; turnout 57.4%
  • Phase VI: Seats: 49; candidates: 635; women: 63; voters: 17.28 mn; turnout 57.03%
  • Phase VII: Seats: 40; candidates: 535; women: 47; voters: 14.18 mn; turnout 60.03%

UP election results of 2012:

In 2012, the Samajwadi Party had emerged as the single largest party with 224 seats, followed by the Bahujan Samaj Party with 80 seats. The BJP wion 47 while the Congress got 28 seats.

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Poll Outcome 2012 Graphic

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