Even as the nation waits with bated breath for the results of the national elections, which will start emerging from the morning of May 23, there will be extra palpitations in the hearts of the political circles of Bhopal, Bengaluru and Chennai.
And that is because the general elections results have a direct bearing on the fate of the precariously-perched respective State governments there.
If exit polls forecast come true that BJP winning handsomely in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, states where Congress just formed governments, those leaders vulnerable. Gehlots sons seat under a cloud of uncertainty and bjp already demanding that kamal nath prove majority again— barkha dutt (@BDUTT) May 20, 2019
In Madhya Pradesh, the six-month old Kamal Nath government is teetering, as the opposition parties led by the BJP have upped the ante by seeking a special session of the Assembly. The Chief Minister, for his part, has brazened it out saying that his government was ready for a floor test.
The Congress has 114 MLAs in the 230-member House. It is propped by 2 BSP, 1 SP and 4 independent MLAs. The relationship between the SP-BSP and the Congress, even without the provocation of the general election results, is frazzled. The Congress poached the BSP candidate Guna-Shivpuri constituency in the general elections. Even then itself BSP supremo Mayawati had made it clear that the Congress government cannot take its support for granted. The SP is also of the same view.
And if the BJP does well as predicted it will be emboldened to lure the 4 (Congress rebel) Independent MLAs and trigger the fall of the government.
In Bengaluru, it looks like that even without the BJP trying too hard, the HD Kumaraswamy government may topple, due to irreconcilable differences between the Congress and JD(S). Here too, if the BJP performs as forecast by the exit polls, it might just be the trigger for the JD(S) and Congress to go their separate ways.
Bangalore South BJP candidate @Tejasvi_Surya speaks exclusively to @nolanentreeo about exit poll results for Karnataka and survival of coalition government.#ReporterDiary #IndiaTodayAxisPollhttps://t.co/FAHzdjSiWA … pic.twitter.com/UntPlXyc5T— India Today (@IndiaToday) May 19, 2019
The Congress' crisis man for such occasions, Water Resources Minister DK Shivakumar, has left for an overseas trip, making the party even more vulnerable.
The BJP is eyeing the situation like an eagle, while JD(S) and Congress legislators bicker among themselves.
In the neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where there is never a dearth of political drama, the Edapaddi Palaniswamy government will be more keenly watching the results of the by-elections to the 22 Assembly constituencies (polls were held for these seats on April 18 and May 19). Exit polls predict the main opposition party, the DMK, to do exceedingly well in both the general elections and the by-elections.
The result in these 22 seats is important for the sustenance of the current government, which has a majority in the assembly at present.
As of now, the ruling AIADMK has 113 MLAs (not counting the Speaker), and the DMK-led combine has 97 MLAs, including 8 from the Congress and one from the IUML. AMMK's TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of Sasikala, who branched out from the AIADMK, is also an MLA- having won from RK Nagar that was previously held by J Jayalalithaa.
In this situation, if the DMK wins 21 seats in the by-polls- and it is a possibility, given the rampant anti-incumbent mood in the State- it can stake a claim to form the government, as it would have the support of 118 members in the 234-member Assembly.
The EPS government must also feel threatened that it cannot take for granted the support of its existing MLAs, many of whom seem ready to switch to Dhinakaran's camp.
There is a complicated scenario in place, and the AIADMK government would expect the BJP to do well nationally, and bail it out in Chennai.
If the trends predicted in the exit polls hold true, the days of all three State governments may well be numbered.