Lockdown imposed by India on March 24th delayed the peak of coronavirus in India and the likely peak will now happen near mid-November, claimed an open access, non peer-reviewed study on June 14. The study was done by researchers from an operations research group set up by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), India's apex medical body leading India's response to the pandemic. The study warned of paucity of beds, ICUs and ventilators.
A day later, the ICMR has distanced itself from the study. In a tweet, ICMR says, ' The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR.'
The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR. pic.twitter.com/OJQq2uYdlM— ICMR (@ICMRDELHI) June 15, 2020
PIB Factcheck also called the report 'misleading', and not reflecting 'authentic information.'
Claim-As per ICMR, the peak of COVID-19 in India is shifted to mid November when a paucity of ICU beds & ventilators may arise#PIBFactCheck-The news is misleading.The study to which the report is attributed, is not carried out by ICMR & doesn't reflect the authentic information pic.twitter.com/Et7yGVpKhQ— PIB Fact Check (@PIBFactCheck) June 15, 2020
The study was first reported by PTI and claimed the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days. It also said that the number of infections were brought down by 69 to 97 percent, giving time to healthcare systems to scale up. It also predicted that after November, there will be a shortage of isolation beds for the next 5.4 months, ICU beds for 5.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months.
NDTV reached out to one of the authors of the study, Arvind Pandey, a member of National Task Force (Operations Research sub-group), who claimed it had been withdrawn.
In a response to a comment, ICMR has further said that the study was not funded by them and their scientist has not contributed to the study.
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