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    Uttar Pradesh set to vote amid hung house prediction

    New Delhi, Feb 7 (IANS) The mother of all elections since the 2009 parliamentary battle starts in Uttar Pradesh Wednesday, with the outcome bound to cast a long shadow on national politics.

    Although only one of five states going to the polls in February-March, the fight for Uttar Pradesh's 403-seat assembly has overshadowed the entire staggered balloting.

    Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Nitin Gadkari has called the Uttar Pradesh election a "semi-final" ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

    With Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati facing a splintered but aggressive opposition, most pundits fear a split verdict -- and a possible coalition government.

    Similar fears in 2007, however, were unfounded, with Mayawati pulling off a veritable coup: she led the BSP to an outright win.

    On Wednesday, 55 of the 403 assembly constituencies will see polling in the first phase, with 1.70 crore people eligible to vote.

    The areas which will see balloting include Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharth Nagar, Maharajganj and Kushinagar along the Nepal border.

    The rest of the sprawling state, India's most populous, will go to the polls over six more rounds, the process ending March 3. The votes will be counted March 6.

    Although a state election, the Uttar Pradesh battle is vital for every major political party, in particular the scandal-hit Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

    A poor showing by the Congress will weaken it nationally and trip its general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who has been leading a spirited campaign across the length and breadth of the state.

    He has aggressively taken on every other player -- BJP, Mayawati and her BSP and the Samajwadi Party -- in a desperate bid to raise the fortunes of the Congress that has been out of power in the state since 1989.

    The Samajwadi Party is widely considered the biggest challenger to the BSP with the potential to emerge on top in the event of a splintered vote.

    The BJP, whose national growth coincided with its spread in Uttar Pradesh from the 1980s, has unleashed all its leaders in the state barring Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

    Pundits admit that Mayawati's Dalit vote base remains as cemented as ever but it will be a miracle if she wins on her own again.

    A latest opinion poll has said that the Samajwadi Party was likely to win 130-170 seats and finish on top of a hung 403-member house.

    The BSP may finish with 65-105 seats, far below what it won in 2007, said the survey posted www.LensOnElections.com

    The BJP and the Congress would be at number three and four place, winning 70-85 seats (BJP) and 55-70 seats (Congress).

    Congress ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) could win 15-20 seats, it said.

    The realignment of constituencies has made poll predictions difficult. Adding to the complexity in the state is the entry of the largely Muslim Peace Party that has fielded a large number of candidates.

     

    14 comments

    • Niks  •  Bangalore, Karnataka  •  3 months ago
      Best of luck to all parties. The wisdom of Indian citizens is to be judged. The kind of non -governance Congress has shown at the centre is not what is needed by the nation. Hope we get a good government.
      • Krishna 3 months ago
        Best of luck to all Indian parties. Worst of luck to Italian mafia Congress and its allies!
      • Hiren 3 months ago
        @Niks -- please don't go with all the bogus paid media rubbish news favoring Congress and other parties.. the reality is that CM Mayawati took the office charge in worst UP conditions, where the state was restless in earlier 40 years due to Congress parties mis-governance and later about 10 years of BJP/SP rulings which gave rise to social dis-harmony, mafia raj and lawness in the State..

        and, by past 5 years rulings, CM Maya is has worked hard and provided increased Growth & development (over 7%GDP), Social harmony, improved Infrastructure, Education, Electricity production, and strengthened the Law & order conditions in UP..
    • Hiren  •  Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh  •  3 months ago
      CM Mayawati Ji is having better Administrative skills, accompanied with refined Social engineering capabilities, and her tenure of past 5 years provided increased growth (over 7%GDP), social harmony, improved infrastructure, education and Law & order conditions in UP..

      If people are looking positive side of modest CM Mayawati, she is far far ahead a towering personality and is 1000 times better than any mafia goon Mulayam singh running crime syndicates or a country-looter mother-son duo Sonia/Rahul..
    • Sarita  •  3 months ago
      VIctory of BSP is certain. All opinion poll results will be proved wrong on 6th of March.. Mayawati will again be Chief Minister of the biggest state in the country. Her vehement opponents like Rahul are all uttering nonsense and these barking dogs will have to eat dung.. Congress has no agenda to remove poverty and create employment opprtunities in the state. Congress is just depending upon FDIs and Corporates to come and set up their shops to loot the nation.. it is just working for upper strata of the society while masses are ignored in the process of economic dewvelopment.Their economic liberalisation, globalisation, privatisation policies being implemented for the last 20 years have done agreat harm to the interests of the masses and further perpetuated poverty in the country.Much hyped food security bill is another agenda for continuance of poverty so that body and soul of the poor remain alive just to vote and support congress
      PEOPLE OF THE STATE MUST REJECT CONGRESS AND ITS ALLIES IN BIG WAY AND VOTE SUPPORT BSP FOR AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN THE STATE.
      • Alimur 3 months ago
        since it is sure that samajwadi party will support congress in UP and Centre muslims should vote for congress. as reservation to muslims by taking the quota from OBCs and congress has promised to reduce SC & ST quota also to increase from 4.5 to 9% OBCs and SC/STs and poor people are not going to vote for Mulayam. since BJP has promised for building Ram Mandir, hindus, irrespective of caste system including OBCs and SC/STs may vote for BJP as the people of UP tell that the rule under BJP were better than any other party's. so there is no wonder if BJP comes in to power like last time's BSP govt. it all depends how the muslims vote. while SP lacks OBC support as mulayam has not done anything to secure their quota in tact, muslims will vote for congress thus congress getting more seats than SP.
      • Ashfaq Hussain 3 months ago
        Sarita you are living in fools paradise. BSP is one woman party with no ideology. It is one of the most corrupt political parties and it can never return to power this time because Mayawati has done nothing for UP and its people.
      • manoj sharma 3 months ago
        @ Ashfaq Hussain - I only pity on you for your poor mental state.

        come to UP and meet downtrodden and poor people to know and understand more about this great visionary and social reformist named Mayawati, before making any false perception.
    • Tara  •  New Delhi, Delhi  •  3 months ago
      Present system of election seem irrelevant to present context and needs to be changed. Voters are just forced to vote without having any faith on the person whom they are voting since they have no choice except not voting at all. Besides, money and liquor is distributed in abundance and voters feel, -- "something is better than nothing." If elected representatives were good, there was no problem in accepting, the right to reject and the right to recall. I think, democracy is a joke in this country.
    • Krishna  •  3 months ago
      Earlier father of prediction of 2007 UP state polls is in garbage dump. So this "hung house prediction" is a either a drunkard or drug user bunch prediction imagining from their own hell holes. Of course, criminal Navin Chawla's junk and rusted EVMs can do wonders too as in 2009 LS polls.
    • Chandra  •  Mumbai, Maharashtra  •  3 months ago
      May god bless all indian with wisdom to give ballot kick on congress people & dirty nehru asses............
      • Ashfaq Hussain 3 months ago
        Idiot talk sense.
      • Joyous 3 months ago
        faq, but where is the talk. when you told idiot will talk sense we expected some more words. did yahoo swallowed your sensible words?
      • Krishna 3 months ago
        Hussain: Are you imagining this from your seventh century desert cave in Sodi Arobia?
    • welcome  •  3 months ago
      Aakhir mein congress ne apni jaat dikha hi di. Agar us ki govt. nahin banti hai to UP mein President Rule laane ke soch rakhi hai. Rahul ab batao ke power ki lust kis ko ha.
    • vijay  •  Chennai, Tamil Nadu  •  3 months ago
      Opinions on party lines may not be in order at this time and we (people) writing for media also are expected to observe the code of conduct in force set by EC. This is what freedom of speech and expression. We should not, however, mis-use or abuse the constitutional provisions.
    • vijay  •  Chennai, Tamil Nadu  •  3 months ago
      The persons with criminal records should be generally barred of contesting elections. There is already provisions. Why we are not able to implement, because the public service also (police) has been divided into political lines and no one appears clean in their approach to sincerity to public service.
    • AP  •  3 months ago
      .I firmly believe that Congress will remain 4th position despite Rahul's best effort matched with money power as well as media power because of two reasons 1) Corruption at Center hugely tarnished Congress image 2) Congress policy of Muslims job reservation have effectively displaced it's Hindu OBC votes mainly this time to BJP 3) Unable to deliver good speeches by Rahul. He dissatisfied UP people when he asks people of UP not to beg in Maharashtra.Rahul is never a good vote catcher as it is already proved in Bihar. Now, Why BSP will not be able to retain it's position? Here is why. 1) Anti establishment votes will go against BSP 2) BSP may retain most of the Dalit votes but Dalit in UP constitutes 18% Votes which is never sufficient to get power. Last time, BSP won because of large Brahmin votes as well as considerable OBC votes.. Due to Kalyan Singh factor, SP lost considerable Muslim votes which went to BSP. This time, Muslims votes will be divided among Congress, SP and very very small section (Muslims) will go to BSP.I therefore consider that certainly, SP may be number one but BJP may be the surprised number two.But here again one "but" is there. This time, all over UP, OBC Hindus are very angry to Congress but they are not too happy to SP either as SP is not coming with it's clear position on Muslim OBC reservation unlike BJP.So if SP looses major chunk of OBC Votes, then BJP may emerge number one in UP.BJP is expected to retain it's upper cast votes with addition of Brahmin votes came out from BSP..
      • Pradeep 3 months ago
        Day-dreaming!
      • AP 3 months ago
        Yes, exactly same way in 2007 for BSP supporters. Those who can recall me at that time (2007) when I was writing in the same caption AP, I blamed Mulayam Singh Yadav to pave the way for BSP win by accepting Kalyan Singh and Muslims overwhelmingly voted to BSP..(before election result announced). This time, it will be divided mainly between SP and Congress.
      • manoj sharma 3 months ago
        @AP - since you are a BJP supporter, you are making vague hypothesis to make BJP win, but ground reality is totally different and you can not change the fate of BJP or Congress in UP... both are competing for a 3rd & 4th position only and don't have any bargaining powers at all.
    • AP  •  3 months ago
      Some people say that BSP won in last election because it was triangular and since this time it is quadriangular, BSP will certainly win as BSP has solid Dalit Vote base. For their information, UP election for last 20/25 years were either triangular or quadriangular and Dalit votes solidly backed BSP since it's inception. So the question is why it was only in 2007, when BSP won but earlier it was SP and BJP? SP lost in 2007 because of Kalyan Singh factor when Muslims votes enmass deserted SP and went to BSP. These time Muslims will be primarirly divided into Congress and SP with very small chunk will go to BSP but because of multiple division, Muslims vote will not deter the fate of this election.Upper cast votes as usual will largely go to BJP with addition of Brahmin votes which last time went to BSP and very smaller chunk may go to Congress primarily Jat votes. But this election, why I say BJP may surprise every one because of Hindu OBC Votes who are angry against Congress but not happy to SP either as SP did not take clear stand on 4.5% Muslim OBC Reservation by cutting from 27% OBC votes.If OBC of other religious group ( Buddhist, Sikhs or christians) demand the same , it will be a disaster for Hindu OBC Reservation.
    • Ashfaq Hussain  •  New Delhi, Delhi  •  3 months ago
      The choice of electorates in UP is cofined to the extent of electing decoit or theif and nothing more than that.
      • manoj sharma 3 months ago
        and what about people sitting in Delhi ?? the Nation looters and multi billion scammers ??
      • Hiren 3 months ago
        Ashfaq, I pity on you for your very poor and irresponsible statement.
    • Ashfaq Hussain  •  New Delhi, Delhi  •  3 months ago
      The most chicken headed electorates are found in UP otherwise Mulayam and Mayawati could have never formed government in this state of UP.( ULTA PRADESH).
    • Ashfaq Hussain  •  New Delhi, Delhi  •  3 months ago
      All political parties are corrupt and full of goons,whome to support and vote ? The only agenda of all parties is to befool the people of this country and loot them after coming to power on their votes.
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