India gold futures seen up on weak rupee, firm oil

Enlarge Photo Gold bars are seen in a jewellery shop in Lucknow in this January 10, 2008...

Mon, May 12 06:11 PM

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian gold futures are seen moving up this week on a weak rupee and firm crude oil prices, analysts said on Monday.

"We can see a pullback rally due to a falling rupee," said Harish Galipelli, head of research, Karvy Comtrade Ltd.

The Indian rupee weakened past 42 per dollar for the first time in more than a year on Monday, as near record high oil prices pushed up dollar-buying by oil firms and weak factory data raised concerns of a slowdown in the economy.

Most of India's gold is imported and a weak rupee makes imports expensive.

"Oil price is also giving directions to the bullion market and as long as it trades higher, gold will remain firm," said Shailendra Kumar, head of research, Sharekhan Commodities.

Crude oil eased towards $125 a barrel on Monday, but was still close to record levels above $126 a barrel.

Oil has jumped about 13 percent since slipping to $110.53 a barrel on May 1, fuelled by supply disruptions in the North Sea and Nigeria, and galloping demand for distillate fuels, notably diesel.

Other than rupee and oil, the U.S. consumer price index data and April housing data will also provide some cues, said Kunal Shah, an analyst with Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt Ltd.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, looms large in investors' minds. The data will show whether higher food and fuel prices are trickling through the economy and sending up costs of other goods.

The CPI data may also give a clue about the U.S. Federal Reserve's next monetary policy move.

However, weak physical demand due to high prices may restrict some of the gains, said Galipelli.

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