Medvedev is Russian president, but who's in charge?

Enlarge Photo Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and First Deputy Prime Minister and president-elect Dmitry Medvedev attend...

Sun, May 4 06:42 PM

By Christian Lowe

MOSCOW (Reuters) - An international crisis breaks out, a Group of Eight leader needs to speak to Moscow right away, but who should they call: President Dmitry Medvedev or Prime Minister Vladimir Putin?

Diplomats are having to grapple with this imaginary scenario because from the moment on Wednesday when Kremlin cannons fire a salute to mark the inauguration of the new president, Russia will effectively have two leaders.

Medvedev, 42, will have all the trappings of presidential power but his 55-year-old mentor Putin will be prime minister, head of the biggest party in parliament and command a power base that could make him the country's principal decision-maker.

Asked who they would call in an emergency, two senior officials from a G8 government, visiting Moscow last month, looked at each other and then shrugged. "Perhaps you know the situation better than us?" one of them asked a reporter.

POLITICAL CRISIS

The question of who is in charge matters because Russia has no track record of power-sharing. Observers say there is great potential for confusion and incoherence that could make the vast, nuclear-armed country ungovernable.

"You cannot rule out that their (Putin and Medvedev's) views will differ fundamentally on some important question. That will lead to political crisis," analyst Grigory Dobromelov wrote in a comment for the Centre for Political Technologies, a think tank.

What is not in question is that Putin will have more power than indicated by the job description for prime minister -- a junior role to the president which for the past eight years has been filled by low-profile technocrats.

He controls the legislature through United Russia, the party he has agreed to chair and which has a majority in parliament. That allows him to block some Kremlin decisions, change the constitution or launch impeachment proceedings against the president.

In a symbolic move, United Russia has transferred its headquarters to a building near the Kremlin, where its neighbour is the presidential administration.

Putin has a sky-high popularity rating, and a network of allies in government who are likely to retain key posts after the handover. Medvedev, by contrast, has spent his political career in Putin's shadow.

"Medvedev does not have his own team, his own people. He doesn't have his own bureaucrats or businessmen on which he can rely," said a source with links to the Kremlin.

"He can rely only on Putin, therefore he has no choice but to do as he is told."

CENTRE OF POWER

Putin has also been quietly beefing up prime ministerial powers. One example: he issued a decree on April 28 ordering regional governors to submit annual reports on their performance to the government. Previously, they were filed to the Kremlin.

"(There is a) process of 'soft' redistribution of power between the president and the prime minister," Russia's Centre for Current Politics wrote in a research note.

"For the first time in the history of post-Soviet Russia, the prime minister's job is being transformed from a technical one to a real decision-making centre."

Putin is stepping down as president in line with a constitutional ban on leaders serving more than two consecutive terms. Some supporters had pressed him to seek a third term, but he has always ruled out changing the constitution to do this.

Observers say that staying on could have damaged Russia's international standing and dented the reputation Putin cultivated at home as a leader who respects the law.

Russian officials hang the portrait of the serving president on their office walls in a mark of respect. Putin, asked by a reporter if Medvedev would adorn his prime ministerial office, said he did not feel the need.

Less clear than Putin's power is whether he will exercise it, and if he does, for how long.

"It comes down to how that is used," said a diplomatic source. "It is difficult to make a judgement because hard information is so scarce."

One theory is that once Medvedev has settled in to the presidency Putin plans to step back and let his protege put his own mark on the job, perhaps by implementing liberal reforms and adopting a less abrasive approach with the West.

Others say that is wishful thinking. "Nothing will change," said the source with Kremlin links. "Putin will remain the only effective force in the upper reaches of power."

RECOMMEND THIS STORY