Jerusalem, Jan.27 (ANI): Israeli intelligence estimates, backed by academic studies, have cast doubt about a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities setting off a catastrophic set of events like a regional conflagration, widespread acts of terrorism and sky-high oil prices.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he thinks Iranians citizens will welcome an attack.
The estimates, which have been largely adopted by the country's most senior officials, conclude that the threat of Iranian retaliation is partly bluff.
According to the New York Times, the possibility of a retaliation by Tehran is playing an important role in Israel's calculation of whether ultimately to strike Iran, or to try to persuade the United States to do so.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Israel Radio in November that retaliation from iran would be bearable.
He said then: "There will not be 100,000 dead or 10,000 dead or 1,000 dead. The state of Israel will not be destroyed."
The Iranian government, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz - through which 90 percent of gulf oil passes - and if attacked, to retaliate with all its military might.
But Israeli assessments reject the threats as overblown.
Both Netanyahu and Barak are focused on how to stop what they view as Iran's determination to obtain nuclear weapons.
No issue in Israel is more fraught than the debate over the wisdom and feasibility of a strike on Iran.
Some argue that even a successful military strike would do no more than delay any Iranian nuclear weapons program, and perhaps increase Iran's determination to acquire the capability.
Security officials are increasingly kept from journalists or barred from discussing Iran. Much of the public talk is as much message delivery as actual policy.
With the region in turmoil and the Europeans having agreed to harsh sanctions against Iran, strategic assessments can quickly lose their currency.
Conversations with eight current and recent top Israeli security officials suggested several things: since Israel has been demanding the new sanctions, including an oil embargo and seizure of Iran's Central Bank assets, it will give the sanctions some months to work; the sanctions are viewed here as probably insufficient; a military attack remains a very real option; and post-attack situations are considered less perilous than one in which Iran has nuclear weapons.
The core analysis is based on an examination of Iran's interests and abilities, along with recent threats and conflicts. (ANI)
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