S Asia's electricity demand to triple by 2030: ADB

Thu, Nov 5 01:50 AM

South Asia's electricity demand is projected to more than triple from 43.2 mtoe (million tonne of energy equivalent) in 2005 to 165.7 mtoe in 2030, growing at an annual rate of 5.5%. This projected growth rate of electricity demand is faster than the 3% growth rate of final energy demand through 2030, says Asian Development Bank's (ADB) energy outlook for Asia. In order to meet the fast growth in electricity demand, total electricity generation will increase from 735.7 TWh in 2005 to 2,549.2 TWh in 2030. South Asia's power generation mix will be dominated by coal-fired generation-nearly 99% of which comes from India. Electricity demand in India will expand rapidly as a result of development of industry and electricity supply infrastructure. India is expected to continue relying on coal as the most cost-competitive option to meet its soaring electricity demand.

However, India's energy diversification efforts and other members' increasing generation capacity from other sources may reduce coal's share to 61.2% in 2030 from 65.5% in 2005. In contrast, the share of nuclear in power generation may more than triple from 2.4% in 2005 to 8.5% in 2030 as a result of India's projected increase in nuclear power generation. The share of natural gas-fired generation may increase from 11.1% in 2005 to 13.8% in 2030 as India and Bangladesh make more use of domestic natural gas reserves. Hydropower generation will double from 111.4 TWh in 2005 to 276.3 TWh in 2030, but its share will shrink to 10.8% in 2030 from 15.1% in 2005.

The energy outlook says that South Asia's primary energy demand is projected to increase from 582.1 mtoe in 2005 to 1,264.3 mtoe in 2030 at an annual rate of 3.2%. The share of the subregion's energy demand within the total energy demand of Asia and the Pacific will rise to 17.5% in 2030 from 14.5% in 2005. India will continue to take the bulk of the share in South Asia at 92.7% in 2030, nearly unchanged from 92.4% in 2005. Likewise, India will account for the biggest portion of incremental growth in the primary energy demand of South Asia-92.9% between 2005 and 2030.

By energy type, coal will account for the biggest share at 36.6% in 2030, rising from 35.8% in 2005. The growth is driven by the power sector, which will account for 88.6% of the incremental increase. Around 98% of the incremental growth in coal demand will come from India. Oil's share will increase slightly from 23.8% in 2005 to 26.6% in 2030. Oil demand will increase at an annual rate of 3.6% through 2030. This could be explained by growing demand from the transport sector, which is being accelerated by income growth and road infrastructure development. Oil demand will also be driven by the other sectors as a substitute for non-commercial fuels. Natural gas demand will increase at the fastest rate among fossil fuels, growing at an annual rate of 4.9% through 2030.

According to the outlook, approximately 52.6% of the incremental growth will be consumed in the power generation sector. India and Bangladesh are the only consumers of natural gas in South Asia. The recent discovery of the large-scale gas fields offshore of the east sea coast of India will increase both production and consumption of natural gas in the future. Being richly endowed with natural gas reserves, Bangladesh is likely to expand its dependence on natural gas further.

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