Bellicose in Baghdad

Tue, Oct 27 03:54 PM

The twin car suicide bombings that struck Iraq's justice ministry and provincial council complexes on Sunday were so ghastly that they mangled not only cars, buildings and humans but also the notion that the country is limping back to normalcy.

Against the backdrop of the wailing sirens and mourners of victims arose nagging questions about stability, security and the integrity of Iraq as a single nation-state. The weekend terrorist attacks were alarmingly repetitious, following devastating blows to Iraq's foreign and finance ministries in August. They mocked at the assertion that the war is somehow over or in its last gasps.

Statistically, levels of violence against the Iraqi state and the US-led foreign forces have fallen over the last two years. Proponents of former US President George W Bush's 'surge' strategy take credit for the reduction in attacks and attribute success to cooptation of Sunni Arab tribal militias into 'sons of Iraq' or 'Awakening' outfits.

But the latest bombings, in which assailants carrying heavy explosives breached numerous military checkpoints with apparent ease, seem to belie the wisdom of an American strategy of arming gangs to counter insurgents and then planning to withdraw.

With senior Iraqi government officials admitting instances of terrorists infiltrating the national army and police, absorbing a quarter of the 'Awakening' groups into the regular Iraqi security forces will remain a thorny prospect laden with sectarian suspicions and fears.

Prime Minister Nouri Kamal al-Maliki had bargained hard with the American handlers of the 'Awakening' militias and accepted future integration of only 25% of them into the state security structures. Three quarters of the 54,000-odd militia members, whom the Americans had coddled as the prime anti-insurgent force, will remain outside the ambit of the Iraqi state—a frightening proposition in light of their leaders' threats of burning the whole country in a "tribal war".

Are there connections between the Sunni terrorists who are able to strike at will in Baghdad and beyond and many of the disgruntled US-propped 'counter-gangs'? Are the Americans going to draw down and leave Iraq in the throes of mercenaries they created in 2005 by militarising certain sections of society?

Since the Barack Obama administration accelerated moves towards downsizing US forces in Iraq from the present number of 1,20,000 to 50,000 by August 2010, a security vacuum has emerged for the benefit of different enemies of the Iraqi dispensation under Maliki.

Principal among the militant opponents of the post-Saddam dispensation is 'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia'. Believed to be led by an Egyptian jihadi, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, it is variously described as 'homegrown' and as a 'network of foreign fighters' determined to oust Western invaders from Arab soil.

Some analysts claim that the role of foreign Sunni Arab extremists in this organisation has progressively declined and that it is effectively run by Iraqis belonging to the intelligence apparatus of the executed former dictator, Saddam Hussein. If this reading is confirmed, then one of the George W Bush administration's casus belli to attack Iraq in 2003—that Saddam's regime was harbouring and financing al Qaeda—may be posthumously coming true as a consequence of the war!

The Maliki government had accused Syria of involvement in the August bombings in Baghdad, curdling bilateral relations. The BBC is now citing "prominent members of the government" in Iraq to be linking the latest outrage to that of August and again pointing the finger at Syria.

If 'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia' overlaps with Saddam's Ba'ath Party officialdom, then the Iraqi government's implication is that both these actors are being sheltered by Syria's ruling Ba'ath Party. Although Iraqi Ba'athists and Syrian Ba'athists parted ways in 1966, there is a possibility that the two are now acting jointly to destabilise the Maliki-led government in Baghdad.

Syria has been a thorn in the flesh for American aims in the region because of its continued desire to dominate politics in Lebanon and its assistance to Hezbollah. Is Damascus indeed abetting Iraq's terrorists to drive a harder bargain with Washington to retain some sphere of influence in Lebanon? Syria-Israel talks, brokered by Turkey, are frozen at present and Washington has been engaged in "very constructive" talks with Damascus this year. The spurt of fresh earth-shaking violence in Iraq is thus going to have ripple effects for the entire Middle East peace process.

Iran itself will be rechecking its cards in Iraq ever since Maliki announced a new nationalist political coalition for the parliamentary elections due in January 2010. Maliki's jump from a sectarian Shiite platform into a unifying catch-all politician may not disturb the underlying influence that Iran has over the Iraqi state, but Tehran will do everything to hold on to its strategically beneficial partnership with Baghdad.

The close relations between Tehran and Damascus as well as between Tehran and Baghdad make for a fascinatingly complex triangle of regional politics. Earlier this year, buses carrying Iranian pilgrims to Iraq's holiest Shiite shrines were bombed and strafed by Sunni gunmen with possible links to 'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia'. With over 95 Shiite Iranian civilians killed in Iraq in 2009, Tehran will not take the continued terrorist menace in its neighbouring country lying down.

Tensions also continue to rise in northern Iraq between Arab and Kurdish politicians over the status of Nineveh province, which contains the oil rich city of Mosul. A similar contest is underway to determine political control of the hydrocarbon treasures of Kirkuk, where Arabs and Kurds contend with each other and with a Turkomen minority.

A mayor from one of the disputed northern towns rued earlier this year—"Nothing in Iraq is solved." The war and its demons which the Americans unleashed have now been offloaded on to Iraqi shoulders. The shift in world attention to 'Af-Pak' cannot cover up this ruinous outcome.

—The author is associate professor of world politics at the OP Jindal Global University

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