Column : The writing on the wall

Fri, Oct 23 12:22 PM

Ever since the Lok Sabha election results, Bengal watchers have been harping on the fact that the rural electorate—LF's critical support base—had shifted loyalties to the opposition Trinamool Congress. The Left Front managed to bag only 15, seats.

Now, final data from the National Election Study and a post-election survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies show that the shift away from the Left has been sharper. That's more than what the Left Front is willing to concede, with leaders often reminding the media that the "base is intact". But that's not quite what the voting pattern is showing. While the Left Front got 43.3% votes this time, from 50.81% in 2004, the Trinamool-Congress combine got 44.6% of votes. In 2009, the CPM voteshare slipped to 33.10% from 38.57% in 2004; while Trinamool has seen its voteshare increase to 31.20% from 21.04% in 2004. What should worry the Left leadership is the slipping away of traditional Red voters like farmers (only 31% voted Left and 65% rooted for the TC-Congress alliance, a 26% drop for the LF from 2004); and skilled and semi-skilled workers in the rural areas which saw a 16% slide in Left voting from 2004 figures. A majority of Muslims too (58%) voted for the non-Left parties, a fallout of Left policies, say experts, on land acquisition in Nandigram and south 24-Parganas as also the Sachar committee report, which pulled up the ruling LF for not doing enough for the community on education, health and other human development parameters. Of its traditional base, only the scheduled castes (55%) and tribes (47%) remained loyal to the Left. These figures show that the Left's post-poll analysis blaming losses on a national wave in favour of the Congress rather than its own inefficiencies doesn't quite ring true. Yet some leaders in the party admit privately that faulty policies—poor implementation of NREGA, a non-transparent stand on land acquisition, handling of Maoists —have done a lot of harm. The party has begun some damage control exercises, like creating rural infrastructure , but isn't it too little too late?

—sudipta.datta@expressindia.com

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