ANALYSIS - Zelaya stumbles in bid to lead Honduras again

Thu, Nov 5 07:05 AM

Enlarge Photo Honduras' ousted President Manuel Zelaya waves before a meeting inside the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa... Slideshow: World in pictures: November 04

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya may have jeopardized his bid to return to power when he agreed to a U.S.-brokered pact to end a four-month political crisis, as the deal contains no guarantees for him.

Days after he applauded an agreement between his camp and Roberto Micheletti's de facto government as a "triumph" for democracy, Zelaya looks increasingly unlikely to be allowed to serve out the rest of his term, which ends on Jan. 27.

Washington also feted the deal as a way to end the deadlock since a June 28 coup, but the accord puts Zelaya's return in the hands of the Honduran Congress, which is stalling on the issue.

The United States, a top trading partner, has stopped pushing for Zelaya to be reinstated as a vital part of ending Central America's worst political crisis in two decades.

"The accord favors the de facto government," said political consultant Thelma Mejia. "It's a straitjacket for Zelaya."

Zelaya, a leftist logging magnate who spooked conservatives by growing close to socialist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, claims the pact paved the way for him to return to power.

But the language of the accord leaves it to Congress to decide, and lawmakers declined on Tuesday to call a special session to debate the matter, showing they are in no hurry to bring Zelaya back.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon, who was in Tegucigalpa to push the two sides to sign a deal, told CNN on Tuesday that international recognition of Honduras' Nov. 29 presidential vote was not contingent on a Zelaya restitution. He said the issue was up to Congress.

Zelaya promptly demanded the United States clarify its position, saying it was failing to respect the accords if it "recognizes the elections without reversing the coup."

Political analysts say most lawmakers oppose a Zelaya return and are convinced that if they stall until the November election, the world will recognize a new Honduran leader and lift measures imposed to punish the country over the coup.

"Zelaya committed many errors in this negotiation. It's against all his interests," said analyst Juan Ramon Martinez.

THE SPIRIT OR THE LETTER

The United States, Europe and multilateral groups cut aid key to Honduras, an impoverished exporter of coffee and textiles.

Zelaya, who was forced into exile on June 28 and has been holed up in the Brazilian embassy since sneaking back in September, says this month's election will be illegitimate if held under a government installed after a coup.

Human rights groups have documented abuses by the de facto government, including deaths and curbing of civil liberties.

The Organization of American States, or OAS, backed the accord but is not publicly pushing for Zelaya's restitution, saying the first priority stipulated in the deal is for both sides to form a unity cabinet of ministers by Thursday.

"Right now we are focused on bringing the two sides to try to form a cabinet, to put forward names," U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, in Tegucigalpa with an OAS commission to verify compliance with the accords, said on Wednesday.

When asked about Zelaya's restitution, Solis said: "everything is going to take time."

Chilean ex-President Ricardo Lagos, who is also on the commission, praised Micheletti for offering to step aside so that the so-called unity cabinet can function.

But Zelaya on Tuesday rejected a Micheletti move to begin naming ministers, calling it an offense to think of forming a cabinet without Congress first deciding who would lead it.

With its eyes on the upcoming election, Micheletti's government, installed by Congress after Zelaya's ouster, says the accord can be fulfilled without Zelaya returning.

"They are hoping governments of other countries will decide to recognize results of the election, even if they don't return Zelaya," said independent political analyst Alvaro Calix.

The Supreme Court is due to give its view on the legality of a Zelaya return and Congress wants to hear this before it votes, even though the opinion is non-binding.

The court backed Zelaya's ouster, however, saying he sought support to change the constitution to allow presidential re-election. The deposed leftist leader denies he did so.

If Congress does vote, most lawmakers from Zelaya's Liberal Party now back Micheletti. Neither can he count on backing from the main opposition National Party, whose election candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is ahead in opinion polls.

(Additional reporting by Javier Lopez; Editing by Catherine Bremer, Philip Barbara and Paul Simao)

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